Guinea: Challenges in Transitions

“Guinea is sitting on a volcano. The volcano might erupt at anytime – leading to a struggle for power.” Many people in Guinea describe their country in this manner today.

In early 2008 BEFORE’s analysts agreed that Guinea was facing a leadership crisis. No sooner had BEFORE’s Guinea assessment team returned from its two week country assessment mission when 24-year President Lansana Conté died. Within hours a military group called the National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) came to power and suspended the country’s constitution.

The assessment team, lead by retired United States Ambassador Dane Smith and included four other multi-sector experts, interviewed a great number of local senior government officials, elders, and representatives of local and international non-governmental organizations. Read Ambassador Smith’s first hand account of the trip here.

Based on local input, the Guinea Assessment Team identified these key obstacles to peace in late 2008:

• Economic hardship

  Most Guineans are suffering from high inflation rates and rising prices for basic commodities, such as food and shelter. People believe this is caused by the political class skimming wealth off of the country’s resources. As people struggle to feed their families, frustration is building.

• Absence of rule of law

  Government and state security officials assert that existing legal structures are sufficiently upholding the laws of the country. But opposition leaders, lawyers, judges and educated Guineans point to growing authoritarianism, corrupt public officials, and the loss of public faith in government institutions to question the rule of law. As these two sides struggle amongst each other, mafia-like clans are emerging throughout the country.

• Ethnic cleavages

  Guinea is divided among these ethnic lines:
  • Fulas in the Fouta Jallon midlands;
  • Malinke from the Upper Guinea; and
  • Susu (Soussou) from the coastal lands.
  Reports indicate the most serious potential conflict is between Malinké and Susu as the two struggle within the current power transition brought about by President Conté’s death.

• Security and Defense Forces Challenges

  Guinea’s security sector was one of the best in West Africa, with a good reputation for support in regional independence struggles and international peacekeeping missions. Today however, violent outbursts toward civilians, disregard for military protocol, drug trafficking, former rebels, ethnic discrimination, and infrequent and irregular payment of salaries are tearing security and defense forces apart.

During the tumultuous year of 2009 these potential obstacles to peace soon became a reality.

HOPE AND CAPACITIES FOR PEACE

Nonetheless BEFORE and its local partners believe that war can be prevented in Guinea. To begin with, there are several Guinean characteristics of national culture that are already curbing political violence:

• The country has not seen a civil war – unlike its neighbours – which is a source of national pride.
• Guineans are proud of their history as the first African country to gain independence from France.
• High local consciousness of ethnic differences actually deters generalized ethnic warfare.
• There are several governmental institutions and civil society organizations that have thus far been able to help the country avoid political violence.
• Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the people of Guinea want a peaceful and flourishing country.

In May 2009, BEFORE conducted an in-depth analysis on the challenges of transition facing the new government with local experts and begin implementing a violence prevention program in Guinea. This workshop paved the way for BEFORE’s work in Guinea during the violent events of September 28th in which unarmed demonstrators were killed and beaten by men in military uniforms.

BEFORE continued it work in Guinea and recently presented its examination on the Guinean Defense and Security Forces to the new Guinean Prime Minister.

Be a part of this project by making a donation today.

Background

Located in the unstable region of Mano River Union, this small West African country with an approximate population of 10 million people has to-date avoided the civil wars that ravaged many of its neighboring countries, such as Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Guinea was the first country to free itself from the French colonialism in the late 1950’s. Since then various ethnic groups have struggled for power. The largest group, the Fulani, has been subject to discriminatory policies, while two other large groups, the Susu and the Malinke, had political representation in the country’s two former presidents.

History at-a-Glance

• 1958 – Union leader, secretary-general of the Democratic Party of Guinea, and the great-grand son of resistance leader Samory Touré, Ahmed Sekou Touré becomes the first president of Guinea.
• 1958 -1984 – Guinea is a closed socialist state, with periods of support from the United States. While some Guineans regard President Touré as a hero, thousands of people suffer from his repression for 26 years.
• 1984 – When President Touré dies Colonel Lansana Conté takes power in a peaceful coup. The political power sifts from the Malinke group to the Susu Group. Conté becomes President and Minister of Defence.
• 1993 – 2006 – The regime’s promises and constitutional changes leads to liberalization and to the first multi-party elections. Conté wins all elections. Autocratic characteristics begin to appear in his regime as President Conté’s Party for Unity and Progress (PUP) controls most government posts and the military and civil bureaucracy through substantial patronage networks. There are several attempts to overthrow President Conté.
• 2007 – The legislative elections schedules are made but then postponed on several occasions to give local administrations time to rebuild after hostile and deadly demonstrations in January and February of 2007.
• December 2008 – President Conté dies after years of failing health. The military quickly assumes power of the government, despite constitutional mandates for the National Assembly to take power and schedule elections, but promises wide-spread government reform and the eradication of corruption. The last Guinean elections were in 2002 and the people of Guinea continue to grow frustrated, but hope for the best for their future.