The Early Warning Signs of Conflict

Early warning is the first step in successful conflict prevention. In fact, the goal of early warning is not to predict whether or not violent conflict will occur, but to facilitate prevention by calling attention to potential dangers.

How Early Warning Works:

btn-view-diagramConflict prevention experts are able to give us direction to help prevent violent conflict by asking: Who do we warn, when, of what and how? The answers to these questions give us conflict indicators. Conflict indicators help us understand what causes conflict and whether or not the conflict is likely to break out into armed violence – vital information that shapes BEFORE’s violence prevention response.

Key Early Warning Factors

BEFORE carefully monitors these seven key factors that provide reliable early warnings of violent conflict:

  1. Socio-Economic Conditions
  2. State and Institution Strength/Weakness
  3. Regional/International Consequences
  4. National Security
  5. Public discourse, ideological factors and elite behaviour
  6. Human Rights and Civil Liberties
  7. Political Actors

Learn more details about early warning in conflict prevention.
 

There are three categories of conflict indicators:

  • Structural/Root Causes of Conflict

    Structural factors, such as ethnic or religious diversity, colonial history, natural resources or land distribution, are mostly static and change slowly over time. These factors alone do not cause violent conflict, but can be manipulated, by powerful political figures for example, in such a way as to exacerbate growing tensions.

  • Proximate Causes of Conflict

    Proximate causes bring a country closer to the outbreak of violent conflict through an interplay of structural factors. Proximate causes are not static, but can change over time. Examples include government type and increase in poverty level.

  • Conflict Triggers

    Conflict triggers are concrete single events that unleash violence. Depending on the context, any event can be a trigger: the sudden death of a president, the incarceration of important figures of the opposition, or the announcement of a rise in prices of foods or gasoline.

As conflict triggers cannot be anticipated, BEFORE systematically and continuously monitors structural and proximate causes of potential violence. The result is BEFORE’s ability to assess the likelihood of future violent conflicts.

BEFORE’s Early Warning component can be strengthened. To help us build a comprehensive Early Warning component contact us.